Can Kabul Stop the Fire Before It Spreads Across the Region?

The history, present trajectory and future of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations make one reality unmistakably clear: the relationship between the two neighbouring countries extends far beyond a shared geographical boundary. Their destinies, economies, security environments, social ties and prospects for regional development remain deeply interconnected. Sustainable peace in one country cannot be achieved in isolation from stability in the other.

For decades, Pakistan has remained directly affected by developments in Afghanistan. The prolonged conflict in Afghanistan has had profound consequences for Pakistan’s national security, economy and society, while millions of Afghans have sought refuge in Pakistan during successive periods of war and instability. Despite the enormous challenges, Pakistan has continued to advocate for peace, stability, humanitarian assistance and constructive engagement with Afghanistan.

The events of 11 September 2001 and the subsequent military intervention in Afghanistan marked another decisive turning point in the region’s history. Pakistan became a frontline state in the international campaign against terrorism and subsequently faced the devastating consequences of a conflict that increasingly spilled across its borders.

Over the following two decades, Pakistan witnessed the emergence and expansion of militant organisations, including the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other terrorist networks, which carried out a sustained campaign of violence against the Pakistani state and its people. Terrorist attacks targeted civilians, security personnel, law-enforcement agencies, educational institutions, markets, places of worship and critical national infrastructure.

Pakistan responded through extensive counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations, making enormous sacrifices in terms of human lives, economic resources and national development. More than 80,000 Pakistani military personnel, law-enforcement officials and civilians have lost their lives over the years in the country’s struggle against terrorism and extremism. The economic cost has likewise been immense, with the country suffering billions of dollars in direct and indirect losses. These sacrifices demonstrate that terrorism is not an abstract security concern for Pakistan. It is a direct and existential challenge that has affected virtually every segment of Pakistani society.

The withdrawal of United States and NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2021 and the subsequent return of the Afghan Taliban to power represented another historic turning point. In Pakistan, the development initially generated expectations that the end of the prolonged foreign military presence might create an opportunity for a new era of peace and stability.

Pakistan consistently supported diplomatic engagement with the Afghan authorities and called upon the international community to avoid policies that could push Afghanistan towards economic collapse or a new humanitarian catastrophe. Islamabad advocated constructive international engagement, humanitarian assistance and economic support for the Afghan people.

Pakistan’s underlying objective was straightforward: a peaceful, stable and economically viable Afghanistan that could become a partner in regional connectivity, trade and development rather than a source of insecurity and instability.

There was therefore a genuine expectation that the new political reality in Kabul would create greater opportunities for cooperation between Pakistan and Afghanistan, particularly in counterterrorism, border management, trade, transit, refugee management and regional connectivity.

Unfortunately, subsequent developments have generated serious concerns in Pakistan. Today, the most immediate and fundamental challenge confronting Pakistan-Afghanistan relations is the continued presence and operational activity of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from Afghan territory.

Pakistan’s position is clear: its territory must not be subjected to terrorist attacks planned, organised or facilitated from across the border. Islamabad maintains that TTP elements and affiliated networks have used sanctuaries and operational space in Afghanistan to plan and facilitate attacks against Pakistan.

These attacks have included shootings, bombings, suicide attacks and other acts of terrorism directed at Pakistani civilians and security personnel.

Pakistan has repeatedly urged the Afghan authorities to take effective, verifiable and sustainable action against organisations and individuals involved in terrorism against Pakistan. Islamabad believes that assurances alone cannot resolve the issue; what is required is demonstrable action and measurable outcomes.

The matter is fundamentally one of national security and the protection of human life. Pakistan cannot be expected to compromise on the safety of its citizens or accept the continued use of neighbouring territory for attacks against its people. At the same time, Pakistan recognises that long-term counterterrorism efforts require sustained diplomatic engagement, intelligence cooperation, effective border management and coordinated action against terrorist networks.

A stable Afghanistan is in Pakistan’s interest. Equally, Pakistan believes that a secure Pakistan is essential to Afghanistan’s own economic and political future. Terrorism, instability and uncontrolled militant activity do not respect international boundaries. Any deterioration in Pakistan’s security environment ultimately affects bilateral trade, transit, investment, regional connectivity and Afghanistan’s access to international markets.

Afghanistan therefore has an important responsibility to ensure that its territory is not used against neighbouring countries. Pakistan believes that Afghanistan’s international and regional acceptance will depend not only on its internal policies but also on its ability to demonstrate that its territory will not be allowed to become a platform for terrorism against other states.

Regional peace cannot be built through confrontation, proxy conflicts or the tolerance of militant organisations. It requires mutual respect for sovereignty, non-interference, reciprocal security commitments and responsible state-to-state relations.

The issue of Afghan nationals residing in Pakistan has also acquired renewed importance. For decades, Pakistan has provided extraordinary hospitality to millions of Afghans fleeing conflict, persecution and instability. This humanitarian contribution represents one of the longest refugee-hosting experiences in modern history.

Pakistan has nevertheless reached a point where the management of undocumented and illegally residing foreign nationals has become a matter of law, governance and national security. The policy of repatriating undocumented Afghan nationals should therefore be understood within the broader framework of border regulation, immigration law and national security. Pakistan maintains that repatriation should be conducted in a dignified, orderly and humane manner, with appropriate safeguards for vulnerable individuals and families.

At the same time, legitimate security concerns cannot simply be disregarded. Pakistan has raised concerns that militant networks can exploit undocumented populations, informal settlements and weakly regulated border movements for logistical and operational purposes. The appropriate response is therefore not to stigmatise Afghan refugees or communities, but to establish effective systems of documentation, registration, lawful movement and security screening while ensuring that genuine humanitarian needs are addressed.

A properly regulated migration framework would benefit both countries by protecting vulnerable people while preventing criminal and terrorist networks from exploiting gaps in border and immigration controls.

Another longstanding source of tension is the issue of the Durand Line and competing perceptions regarding the status and management of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Pakistan’s position is that the international border must be respected and that disputes should not be allowed to undermine bilateral cooperation.

Regardless of differing political positions, practical border management is essential. A modern, transparent and technologically enabled border-management system can simultaneously facilitate legitimate movement and restrict the movement of terrorists, smugglers and other criminal networks.

Pakistan therefore supports the development of smart border-management mechanisms, including improved documentation, modern crossing infrastructure, coordinated customs procedures, biometric systems and appropriate information-sharing arrangements. Such measures should not be designed to isolate the two peoples. On the contrary, properly managed borders can facilitate legitimate family visits, trade, transit and people-to-people contact while strengthening security.

Pakistan believes that the relationship with Afghanistan cannot and should not be defined exclusively through the prism of security. The ultimate objective must be to transform the relationship into a comprehensive partnership based on peace, trade, economic integration and regional connectivity. Afghanistan possesses enormous potential as a bridge between South Asia, Central Asia and the wider region. Pakistan, with its ports, infrastructure and access to international markets, can provide Afghanistan with important opportunities for trade and transit.

Similarly, Afghanistan can become an important corridor for Pakistan’s access to Central Asian markets. Realising this potential, however, requires a stable security environment. No meaningful economic corridor can function effectively where terrorism, border clashes, smuggling and political mistrust remain unresolved. Security and economic development must therefore be viewed as mutually reinforcing objectives.

Pakistan believes that the present challenges require a permanent, transparent and credible bilateral framework for security and diplomatic engagement.

Such a framework should include:

  • Regular and institutionalised political and diplomatic dialogue between the two countries.
  • A structured mechanism for counterterrorism cooperation.
  • Effective intelligence-sharing arrangements against terrorist networks.
  • Joint efforts to prevent the use of either country’s territory against the other.
  • Improved coordination on border security and border management.
  • Mechanisms for rapidly addressing incidents along the frontier.
  • Cooperation against terrorism, organised crime, trafficking and smuggling.
  • A comprehensive and mutually acceptable framework for refugee and migration management.
  • Expansion of bilateral trade and transit arrangements.
  • Development of cross-border economic zones and connectivity projects.
  • Greater people-to-people contact and legitimate cross-border movement.
  • Continued regional diplomatic engagement involving relevant neighbouring and regional states.

Such mechanisms should be based on reciprocity, sovereignty, transparency and measurable commitments.

Pakistan also recognises that Afghanistan has the sovereign right to develop relations with other countries. Islamabad does not oppose constructive Afghan engagement with regional or international partners. However, Pakistan believes that Afghanistan’s foreign relations should contribute to regional stability rather than become a source of strategic competition or insecurity. Closer relations between Afghanistan and India, or with any other regional state, should not come at the expense of Pakistan’s security interests. Similarly, Pakistan’s relations with other countries should not be interpreted as an attempt to undermine Afghanistan.

The region requires cooperation rather than competing spheres of influence. The central principle should be that Afghan territory must not be used against Pakistan, just as Pakistani territory must not be used against Afghanistan.

The future of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations will ultimately depend upon the choices made by both sides. Pakistan has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to engage Afghanistan diplomatically and constructively. It has consistently supported peace in Afghanistan, advocated humanitarian assistance, facilitated trade and transit, and shouldered an enormous humanitarian burden over several decades.

However, sustainable bilateral relations require reciprocity. Afghanistan must recognise that continued attacks against Pakistan from its territory, the presence of terrorist sanctuaries and the failure to take effective action against anti-Pakistan militant networks will inevitably undermine trust and obstruct the development of broader bilateral relations.

At the same time, Pakistan remains committed to pursuing diplomatic avenues wherever possible. Military and security measures alone cannot provide a permanent solution. A durable settlement requires political engagement, economic cooperation, responsible border management and a shared commitment to preventing terrorism.

Pakistan’s vision for Afghanistan is not one of confrontation. It is one of stability, sovereignty, economic opportunity and regional integration. The two countries share centuries of history, deep cultural and social connections and extensive economic and human linkages. Their populations have far more to gain from cooperation than from prolonged confrontation.

The way forward lies in replacing mistrust with institutional dialogue, insecurity with coordinated counterterrorism measures, unmanaged borders with smart border management, and economic isolation with mutually beneficial trade and connectivity.

The Afghan authorities must understand that peace with Pakistan is not merely a bilateral objective; it is an essential component of Afghanistan’s own long-term stability and prosperity.

Likewise, Pakistan must continue to pursue policies that distinguish between the Afghan people and terrorist organisations, combining legitimate security measures with humanitarian responsibility and diplomatic engagement.

The ultimate goal should be a relationship in which the border becomes a bridge for commerce rather than a source of conflict; in which security cooperation prevents terrorism rather than merely responding to attacks; and in which Pakistan and Afghanistan contribute jointly to the emergence of a peaceful, connected and economically vibrant region.

Pakistan remains committed to constructive engagement with Afghanistan. But sustainable engagement can succeed only when accompanied by mutual respect, reciprocal responsibility and a clear, verifiable commitment that the territory of either country will never be used against the other.

The future of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations should not be determined by the conflicts of the past. It should be shaped by a shared recognition that peace, security, economic cooperation and regional connectivity offer the only sustainable path towards prosperity for both nations and for the wider region.

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