Despite significant Taliban operations against Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), the group remains a formidable transnational threat with a strategic pivot toward regional and global targets, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) released on Wednesday. The report reveals that while the Taliban have killed multiple senior ISIS-K leaders since regaining control of Afghanistan, the group has not been dismantled. Instead, ISIS-K is recalibrating its operations, increasingly shifting its focus outside Afghanistan and seeking to position itself as the only globally active jihadist organization operating from Afghan soil.
Citing recent massacres in Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Europe including the March 2024 Moscow concert hall attack that left 149 people dead—the report underscores ISIS-K’s growing cross-border ambitions. Many of these attacks have been traced to Central Asian commanders within the group who have long-established networks in multiple regions.
“ISIS-K is no longer concentrating solely on Afghanistan,” the ICG notes. “Its leadership is relocating, its networks are expanding, and its sights are set far beyond the region.” The report confirms that several ISIS-K operatives have recently shifted from Afghanistan to Pakistan, enhancing their mobility and operational scope. The group is now believed to be relying heavily on online communications and decentralized structures, enabling small, frequent, and deadly attacks abroad while evading detection.
Unlike the original ISIS core in Syria and Iraq or the traditional al-Qaeda model, ISIS-K’s decentralized approach enables it to maintain resilience and operational relevance, even under pressure from the Taliban. However, the Crisis Group cautions against overestimating the Taliban’s effectiveness as a counterterrorism force. While the Taliban remain in direct conflict with ISIS-K, the report argues that their motivations are political as much as security-driven.
“Relying on the Taliban to neutralize ISIS-K is a flawed and risky strategy,” the report warns. “The Taliban may use the ISIS threat to seek international legitimacy and recognition, rather than to ensure regional stability.” The ICG calls for the international community to adopt a cautious and long-term strategy, warning against simplistic narratives that equate Taliban hostility toward ISIS-K with genuine counterterrorism cooperation.
“The evolving threat landscape demands more than tactical reliance on the Taliban,” the report concludes. “It requires sustained international vigilance, regional coordination, and a nuanced understanding of jihadist realignments in South and Central Asia.”
