The Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS) has issued a stark warning that India’s increasingly aggressive “new normal” doctrine is transforming South Asia into a far more volatile nuclear theatre, arguing that New Delhi’s posture is engineered to normalise escalation and justify unilateral military adventurism under the guise of counter-terrorism.
The warning was delivered during a CISS dialogue titled “Evolving Regional Security Dynamics: Converging Pakistan–Australia Strategic Interests,” held on Sunday with Australian scholars and officials. CISS delegates said India’s “new normal” is not a genuine security principle but a political narrative crafted to enable irresponsible military action, including cross-border strikes, while ignoring the catastrophic risks inherent in a nuclear-armed region. They noted that since 2019 and reaffirmed again this year India has embedded escalation into its mainstream policy, using alleged militant incidents as pretexts for conventional strikes such as the so-called Operation Sindoor, even when such claims remain unverified.
The delegates stressed that India’s narrative seeks to downplay Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent and project the misleading notion that New Delhi can conduct military operations without consequence. They argued that India’s pursuit of limited war under the nuclear overhang backed by its expanding conventional capabilities directly threatens South Asia’s strategic stability and magnifies the risk of miscalculation in any crisis.
Scholars at the dialogue also questioned India’s credibility in repeatedly blaming Pakistan for every violent incident despite dealing with more than two dozen active separatist and insurgent movements within its own territory. They said India’s habit of externalising internal crises and using them as justification for cross-border strikes represents a destabilising pattern that undermines crisis management and heightens regional insecurity.
The CISS delegation underscored that the true “new normal” in South Asia remains Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence, which they said continues to restrain India’s war-fighting doctrines. They added that Pakistan remains fully prepared to deliver a proportionate but decisive “Quid Pro Quo Plus” response to any future Indian military misadventure, as demonstrated during the May 2025 conflict.
CISS experts further warned that Western support for India’s military modernisation rests on a flawed assumption that New Delhi will primarily act as a counterweight to China. In reality, they argued, India’s growing military and nuclear capabilities continue to be overwhelmingly oriented towards Pakistan, fuelling regional insecurity rather than contributing to broader Indo-Pacific stability. The dialogue also considered the wider implications of AUKUS and the Quad for South Asian security.
Australian scholars at the event outlined their country’s perspective on deeper engagement in security partnerships such as AUKUS and the Quad, citing intensifying geopolitical competition and the need for enhanced defence preparedness. They reaffirmed that AUKUS remains a strictly trilateral partnership between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom, with no plans for expansion. While public debates occasionally mention potential future participants such as Norway, South Korea, Canada or India, the delegation emphasised that such prospects remain remote. They also reiterated that AUKUS adheres to stringent nonproliferation standards fully aligned with IAEA safeguards.
Participants included Justin Burke, Senior Policy Adviser at the National Security College, Australian National University; Mike Hughes, Director of the Defence Strategy Programme at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute; officials from the Australian High Commission in Islamabad; and from CISS, Ambassador Syed Ali Sarwar Naqvi, Executive Director; Dr Bilal Zubair, Director Research; and Anum A. Khan, Associate Director Research.
