A new study analyzing the profiles of 615 Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants has revealed a significant surge in militant activity and expansion of operations across Pakistan following the Afghan Taliban’s takeover in 2021.
The report, based on TTP’s own martyrdom commemorative publications from 2006 to 2025, highlights a dramatic escalation in attacks by the group, particularly after the Taliban assumed power in Kabul. The findings show that TTP has not only increased its operational capacity but has also diversified its geographic footprint, expanding from its traditional strongholds in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) to southern Punjab, urban Sindh, and parts of Balochistan.
In the immediate years following the Taliban’s return, TTP attacks rose sharply. Open-source data indicates 98 direct engagements with Pakistani forces in 2021, rising to 121 in 2022, 374 in 2023, and 470 in 2024. Indirect attacks – including remote bombings and violence against civilians – followed a similar trajectory, increasing from 26 incidents in 2021 to 247 by 2024. According to TTP’s own claims, the group carried out 282 attacks in 2021, 367 in 2022, 881 in 2023, and an alarming 1,758 in 2024.
“This pattern of violence is unprecedented since TTP’s peak years,” the report notes, adding that the group has taken full advantage of the Taliban’s governance in Afghanistan. With its leadership now operating from across the border with apparent freedom, the TTP has regained strategic depth and the ability to coordinate cross-border operations with minimal disruption.
One of the key findings of the study is the high mobility of TTP commanders and suicide attackers, many of whom originated from districts such as Dera Ismail Khan, North Waziristan, Bannu, and Khyber. The data shows that 82 of 84 TTP militants killed inside Afghanistan were born in KPK, underscoring the regional connectivity of the insurgency.
The research also indicates a shift in TTP’s recruitment centers, with Dera Ismail Khan now emerging as a key operational hub, surpassing North Waziristan. Among the 120 profiles with educational data, the majority of militants – especially suicide attackers and commanders – had a background in religious education.
While KPK continues to bear the brunt of TTP’s violent campaign, Punjab and Sindh are increasingly becoming targets. In 2024, 19 attacks were reported in Punjab compared to nine the year before, while Karachi saw five TTP-related incidents in 2024, up from two in 2023.
The findings serve as a stark reminder of the consequences of Afghanistan’s evolving political landscape on Pakistan’s internal security. Analysts warn that the continued inaction on cross-border militant sanctuaries and weak counter-terrorism coordination could further embolden the TTP in the coming years.
