Musa Kamal Yousafzai
The return of the Taliban to power in Kabul in August 2021 was widely viewed as a seismic shift in the regional security landscape. While many expected Pakistan’s relationship with the new Afghan regime to be tested, Islamabad’s strategic patience and historical ties with Afghan Taliban factions have allowed it to navigate the emerging threats with remarkable foresight. Despite the Taliban’s release of TTP operatives and the surge of cross-border militancy, Pakistan remains a step ahead leveraging its diplomatic, cultural, and security advantages to mitigate risks while safeguarding its national interests. What may appear as a setback on the surface is, in reality, a carefully managed strategic environment that Pakistan is adeptly turning to its advantage.
The ideological and operational links between the Afghan Taliban and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) run deep. Emerging from the post-9/11 jihadist landscape, the TTP was formed in 2007 by leaders such as Baitullah Mehsud, Hakimullah Mehsud, and Maulana Fazlullah, who had actively supported the Afghan Taliban’s insurgency against U.S. forces. Over time, the TTP has adopted the Taliban’s organisational strategies, established shadow governors across Pakistan, and even implemented a centralized military training system, openly claiming that its mission mirrors the Afghan Taliban’s vision of an Islamic Emirate. This ideological alignment, combined with a shared Pashtun identity, has fostered mutual trust, facilitating operational coordination and shelter during periods of intense conflict.
The Afghan Taliban’s approach toward the TTP reflects this trust and strategic calculation. Following their takeover of Kabul, the Taliban released imprisoned TTP leaders, granting their movement unprecedented freedom within Afghanistan. While this development alarmed Pakistan, it also illustrates the Taliban’s reliance on TTP loyalty to counter rival groups, notably the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). Unlike the TTP, ISKP rejects the Taliban’s authority and threatens the stability of Afghanistan’s Islamic Emirate. By maintaining strong ties with the TTP, the Afghan Taliban both contain ISKP and strengthen their own position a dynamic Pakistan has observed closely and factored into its security strategy.
For Pakistan, this nexus presents tangible challenges. Cross-border attacks by the TTP have risen sharply since 2021, with reports indicating a 79 percent increase in 2023 alone. Incidents along the Chaman and Torkham borders, as well as attacks in regions like Chitral, underscore the persistent security threats emanating from Afghan soil. Yet, Pakistan’s response has been measured: diplomatic engagement, targeted security operations, and the strategic use of its leverage over Afghan-Taliban-TTP dynamics demonstrate Islamabad’s ability to manage complex regional challenges without losing initiative.
Bilateral relations have been complicated by these security realities. Pakistan’s policy of repatriating Afghan refugees, border management issues, and occasional skirmishes reflect broader tensions, but they also signal Islamabad’s insistence on safeguarding its sovereignty while maintaining a cautious approach toward Kabul. Historically, Pakistan has enjoyed productive ties with Afghan Taliban factions, and despite recent strains, there remain avenues for cooperation rooted in shared ethnic, cultural, and economic interests. The Pashtun populations across both sides of the Durand Line, with their common social norms, cultural practices, and religious traditions, present a foundation for confidence-building and engagement opportunities that Pakistan is well-positioned to capitalize on.
Looking ahead, Pakistan’s strategic options are clear. Strengthened intelligence sharing, joint border management, and active diplomatic engagement can stabilize the region and mitigate cross-border threats. Pakistan’s comparative economic and diplomatic strengths enable it to act as a stabilizing force, guiding Afghanistan toward cooperation while countering extremist elements. Meanwhile, the Taliban must recognize the limitations of isolation and adopt a more responsible stance on counterterrorism, creating space for mutual understanding and regional stability.
In a region defined by complexity, history, and interdependence, Pakistan demonstrates that patience, strategy, and foresight often outweigh immediate reactions. The TTP-Taliban nexus, while seemingly threatening, is a challenge Pakistan is navigating with prudence transforming potential chaos into a controlled environment where its national interests remain safeguarded. In the end, the real story is not one of setback, but of calculated advantage, where Pakistan remains, step by step, ahead of the game.
