The killing of Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone strike in the heart of Kabul in August 2022 has not weakened the relationship between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, but instead laid bare a deeply entrenched, structural alliance that continues to pose serious risks to regional and global security, according to informed assessments of developments inside Afghanistan.
Al-Zawahiri, who succeeded Osama bin Laden and served as Al-Qaeda’s leader for more than a decade, was killed while residing in a safe house in a high-security area of the Afghan capital an incident that immediately raised questions about Taliban commitments under the Doha Agreement and their claims of severing ties with transnational terrorist groups. Initial expectations that his death might create a rift between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, or compel the Taliban to curb cooperation, have proven unfounded.
Available evidence indicates that following Zawahiri’s killing, the Taliban neither distanced themselves from Al-Qaeda nor reduced pre-existing collaboration. Instead, cooperation continued seamlessly, highlighting the extent to which Al-Qaeda networks are embedded within the Taliban’s security ecosystem. Analysts note that the relationship appears institutional rather than personal, rooted in shared operational history, ideological alignment and long-standing battlefield cooperation.
In the aftermath of the strike, the Taliban announced a series of “security reforms” aimed at preventing future breaches. However, credible information suggests these measures were largely shaped by Al-Qaeda’s operational experience. The redesign of safe houses, changes in patterns of accommodation, stricter movement controls for senior figures, and enhanced counter-surveillance practices reportedly mirrored methods refined by Al-Qaeda through decades of clandestine activity and evasion of international intelligence services.
Rather than curtailing Al-Qaeda’s space, the post-Zawahiri period appears to have enabled the group to expand its influence within Taliban security and intelligence structures. Persistent weaknesses in the Taliban’s urban security and counterintelligence capabilities reportedly increased reliance on Al-Qaeda’s expertise, allowing the group to participate more directly in security consultations and strategic decision-making.
The result has been an unprecedented level of freedom and protection for Al-Qaeda operatives inside Afghanistan. Security arrangements guided by Al-Qaeda have reportedly reduced the risk of detection and targeting of its leadership, while facilitating organisational recovery, the resumption of training activities, and the gradual expansion of its operational footprint. Observers warn that these developments have created a permissive environment for transnational militancy under Taliban rule.
Security analysts caution that the deepening Taliban–Al-Qaeda alliance carries dangerous long-term consequences. The consolidation of extremist networks in Afghanistan risks destabilising South and Central Asia and reviving the country’s role as a hub for global jihadist activity. The trajectory following Zawahiri’s killing underscores that the threat posed by Al-Qaeda has not diminished but has instead adapted and entrenched itself further, challenging international efforts to counter terrorism and safeguard regional and global security.
