Southern Asia is undergoing a seismic shift in its security architecture one that is not being shaped in Washington, but in Islamabad, Tehran, Kabul, and Beijing. As American influence continues to recede following the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, a new reality is emerging: regional powers are redrawing the security map on their own terms, spurred by the shared threat of terrorism and the need to fill the strategic vacuum left behind.
For years, the United States carried the weight of counter terrorism efforts in this volatile region. But today, with the Taliban entrenched in Kabul and Washington’s regional footprint reduced to a whisper, the burden has shifted decisively to the states closest to the storm. While the US may have hoped to close the chapter on its prolonged engagement in Afghanistan, its disengagement has not removed the threat it has simply transferred the responsibility.
Regional Realignments Accelerate
The most striking development is the evolving relationship between Pakistan, Iran, and China. Each has been re calibrating its national security policy, and all three are converging around shared concerns about transnational terrorism and regional instability. Pakistan’s latest military campaign, Azm-e-Istehkam (Resolve for Stability), launched in June 2024, is no longer just a national effort. It is explicitly tied to multilateral diplomacy, signalling Islamabad’s intent to coordinate more deeply with Tehran and Beijing.
The notion of “regional cooperation” is no longer rhetorical. In just the past year, Iran’s top military commander visited Pakistan to propose sweeping defence collaboration from intelligence sharing and joint patrols to cross-border operations against mutual enemies like ISKP and Baloch separatist groups. Meanwhile, China, which has long played a balancing role between Pakistan and Afghanistan, is now tilting in Islamabad’s favour, openly urging the Taliban to honour its counter terrorism commitments.
These developments are not isolated. In 2023, Pakistan, Iran, and China held their first trilateral counter terrorism summit. While embryonic, such efforts are rapidly gaining traction. Iran’s “Look East” policy and China’s Global Security Initiative are dovetailing neatly with Pakistan’s security imperatives. Even Afghanistan, despite its diplomatic pariah status in the West, is being cautiously drawn into this new framework by its neighbours, who view engagement rather than isolation as the lesser evil.
The Taliban’s Double Game
At the heart of this transformation lies Afghanistan not as a stabilizing force, but as a persistent incubator of insecurity. The Taliban regime’s ideological rigidity and its tolerance of extremist groups, particularly the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), remain core concerns for Pakistan. The lack of tangible action by Kabul against these groups has pushed Islamabad to intensify its own border operations, while also coordinating with Tehran and Beijing.
For Iran, the problem is equally urgent. Its restive Sistan-Balochistan border with Pakistan has become a flash point for militant attacks, and ISKP’s growing footprint threatens both countries. Recognising the overlapping threat matrix, Iran and Pakistan have begun exploring operational cooperation, particularly around the security of Chinese infrastructure projects targeted by insurgents.
China, for its part, is increasingly invested in ensuring that Afghanistan does not become a breeding ground for anti-Chinese terrorism. The proposed Iran-Afghanistan-China railway corridor, part of a broader connectivity vision under the Iran-China 25-year cooperation agreement, hinges on a secure Afghan landscape. Beijing’s ambassador to Kabul has openly called for Afghanistan’s integration into China’s security umbrella, emphasising collective efforts against terrorism.
Risk and Reward for Pakistan
Pakistan’s expanding cooperation with Iran and China is not without peril. Historically, Islamabad has juggled complex relationships: balancing China and the US, while navigating between regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia. Aligning more closely with Tehran risks alienating Riyadh and unsettling Washington. And yet, faced with unrelenting security threats and diminishing US support, Islamabad sees few alternatives.
The implications of this pivot are far-reaching. Western capitals may begin to perceive Pakistan as drifting into an anti-Western axis a prospect that could trigger diplomatic consequences and further economic pressure. With the US remaining one of Pakistan’s largest export markets and a key supplier of military aid, such a shift would come at considerable cost.
Moreover, deeper collaboration with Iran could embroil Pakistan in broader regional rivalries. By aiding Tehran’s defence posture, Islamabad may inadvertently strengthen an adversary of the West, complicating its international diplomacy just when it can least afford to do so.
America’s Shrinking Influence
What is perhaps most remarkable is the absence of the United States from these tectonic changes. Its disengagement has not created peace; it has simply allowed others to redraw the lines. As regional actors consolidate their own security blocs, often without Western involvement, Washington risks being permanently sidelined in an area long seen as critical to global counter terrorism efforts.
The US withdrawal has diminished its ability to gather actionable intelligence, forge tactical alliances, or shape the security narrative. While China and Iran deepen their influence in Kabul unconcerned with governance standards or human rights Washington appears unsure of its next move. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, now including both Iran and Pakistan, has become an increasingly potent platform for non-Western strategic coordination.
Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, if it materialises, will test America’s resolve in this complex arena. His first term emphasized unilateralism and “peace through strength” yet it also produced unpredictable withdrawals and cuts to foreign aid, including in South Asia. If his administration seeks to rebuild credibility and presence in the region, it must articulate a strategy that is not only muscular but also responsive to the nuanced realities on the ground.
What Washington Must Do Now
A coherent US policy must begin with a recognition that Southern Asia’s security vacuum is already being filled and not by friendly actors. While Washington cannot match China’s geographical advantage or Tehran’s proximity, it can re calibrate its partnerships with Pakistan and Afghanistan, incentivise responsible governance in Kabul, and renew support for intelligence and counter terrorism collaboration that directly benefits regional and global stability.
To do nothing would be to accept a world in which the US no longer has leverage in a region that has birthed the most consequential security threats of the 21st century. It would be to cede leadership to a coalition whose interests and methods diverge sharply from Western principles. And it would confirm the worst fears of American allies in the region that Washington no longer has the will to lead.
Southern Asia is forging ahead with or without the United States. The question is whether Washington is ready to rejoin the conversation — or be content to watch from the sidelines as a new order takes shape.
