For over a year, Pakistan has faced repeated terrorist attacks allegedly originating from Afghan territory. Major assaults, including high-profile strikes in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, have fueled public frustration and intensified scrutiny of Islamabad’s restraint in avoiding cross-border military action.
Official sources attribute this caution to ongoing diplomatic engagement with the Afghan Taliban, often mediated via third-party channels. These efforts aim to prevent escalation while encouraging Afghan authorities to dismantle terrorist infrastructure. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has signaled, however, that military options remain under consideration, underscoring the narrowing window for diplomacy.
Coordination and Operational Continuity
Recent intelligence indicates that banned groups such as the banned Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continue to operate with near-total freedom inside Afghanistan. High-level meetings, safe-house networks, and propaganda uploads point to a persistent operational footprint across border provinces.
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Analysts warn that these structures facilitate attacks in Pakistan while allowing the Afghan Taliban to maintain plausible deniability.
From Decree to Doctrine: The Pact That Preceded Power
Historical context sheds light on the structural challenges facing Kabul’s enforcement of its own decrees. According to Afghan media and regional security sources, a secret pact formed before the fall of Kabul in 2021 bound the Afghan Taliban to actively support allied groups under the banner of jihad and facilitate the establishment of a Sharia-based order in Pakistan. Signatories reportedly included Afghan Taliban leadership, TTP, al Qaeda figures, and regional militant commanders such as Sirajuddin Haqqani and Hafiz Gul Bahadur.
Following the Taliban’s return to power, attempts to relocate TTP fighters away from border provinces largely failed, with militants insisting on proximity to their tribal bases. Even with a 2024 decree centralizing weapons under Taliban supreme authority in Kandahar, black-market arms flows persisted, enabling sophisticated cross-border operations. The Mir Ali pact, as this accord is referred to, therefore casts a shadow over both the intent and the enforcement capacity of Afghan authorities: the ideological commitment to militancy predates any public decree and may explain the continued operational freedom of anti-Pakistan actors.
Implications for Regional Security
This convergence of diplomacy, operational persistence, and historical pact creates a fraught environment for Pakistan. While Islamabad seeks to calibrate its response to avoid civilian harm and regional escalation, the strategic patience that underpins restraint is increasingly under pressure. Cross-border militancy, ideological legitimization, and historical complicity combine to test both Pakistan’s security calculus and international perceptions of Taliban credibility.
Analysts note that forums such as the UN Security Council and BRICS counterterrorism dialogues have repeatedly raised concerns about militant sanctuaries in Afghanistan. The revelations of long-standing pacts and ongoing operational coordination underscore the enduring challenge: the Afghan Taliban’s decrees may be on paper, but their commitment to enforcing them on the ground remains highly questionable.
