As per the first quarterly report published by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Pakistan recorded a nearly 18% quarter-on-quarter decline in violence related to terrorism and counter-terrorism during the first quarter of 2026, alongside a mix of promising and concerning trends in the country’s security landscape.
The report notes that a total of 813 violence-linked fatalities and 518 injuries – among civilians, security personnel, and outlaws – were recorded across at least 248 incidents, involving both terrorist attacks and state counter-terrorism operations.
As per the report, the decline in overall violence was largely driven by a sharp reduction in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), where fatalities fell over 57% compared to Q4 2025 (311 vs 727). However, this decline masks significant deteriorations in other regions. Balochistan saw a 104% surge in fatalities (443 vs 217), marking the highest toll in over a decade. Similarly, the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) experienced a 185% increase (37 vs 13), largely due to a suicide attack at a Shiite mosque on February 6, which was the capital’s deadliest incident since 2008. Punjab, starting from a low base, recorded a 367% rise in fatalities (14 vs 3), signaling concerning expansion of violence into the country’s most populous province.
Together, KP and Balochistan accounted for nearly 93% of all violence-linked fatalities, with KP reporting 311 and Balochistan 443 deaths. While KP suffered the majority of violent incidents (147), Balochistan ranked second (87). KP also recorded the most injuries, followed by ICT and Balochistan.
The report highlights that terrorist attacks outnumbered security operations by nearly 2.7 to 1 (180 vs 68), yet security operations accounted for a higher share of fatalities (449 outlaws killed vs 364 civilian and security fatalities). Conversely, terrorist attacks produced over nine times more injuries (467 vs 51), reflecting tactics designed to maximize harm in public spaces, including bombings and suicide attacks.
The capital’s casualty profile was particularly unusual, with three attacks causing 170 injuries but only 37 fatalities, consistent with large-scale blasts in densely populated areas.
As per the report, the first quarter also saw the growing use of drone attacks by militant groups, with 16 in KP and one each in Balochistan and Punjab (18 nationally). Only one was claimed a TTP strike on FC Fort in Karak, KP. Security forces conducted seven drone strikes, all in KP, consolidating state drone capabilities.
Additionally, five suicide attacks were recorded, three vehicle-borne. Four occurred in KP, while the fifth struck an imambargah in Islamabad during Friday prayers, killing 36 and claimed by ISIS.
Contrary to seasonal expectations, fatalities increased through the winter months: December 2025 (230), January 2026 (312), and February 2026 (356). However, March 2026 saw a sharp drop to 145 fatalities, representing a 59% decline from February and 50% below the 14-month average. As per the report, this decline is partially linked to a late-March Pakistan–Afghanistan ceasefire and strategic disruptions from the US–Israel–Iran conflict, though the report cautions that this may represent a short-term reprieve rather than a sustained downward trend.
As per the CRSS report, while overall violence shows a decline, rising lethality in Balochistan, expansion into Punjab, and high-profile attacks in Islamabad highlight the continuing complexity of Pakistan’s security environment. The report underscores the need for adaptive counter-terrorism strategies and close monitoring of shifting militant tactics, including drone use and mass-casualty attacks.
