A classified assessment by US intelligence agencies has concluded that even large-scale military strikes are unlikely to remove Iran’s current political and military leadership, according to a report published by The Washington Post.
The newspaper said the confidential analysis was prepared by senior analysts at the National Intelligence Council, which compiles strategic intelligence assessments based on information gathered from the United States’ 18 intelligence agencies.
According to the report, the assessment was completed about a week before the recent escalation involving military actions linked to Israel and the United States against Iran.
The intelligence review warns that even a sustained military campaign would not necessarily succeed in dismantling Iran’s governing structure or removing its current leadership.
The report has surfaced at a time when Donald Trump and members of his administration have signaled the possibility of a prolonged military campaign against Iran, with officials suggesting that current developments may represent only the beginning of a broader confrontation.
Analysts involved in the intelligence review also examined scenarios involving the possible assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. According to the assessment, Iran’s religious and military leadership has established protocols to respond to such an event.
The report further states that Iran’s opposition groups currently lack the capacity to seize control of the state.
According to the newspaper, the intelligence analysis did not evaluate alternative options such as deploying US ground forces inside Iran or attempting to trigger insurgencies in Kurdish regions.
US officials also noted that there is no evidence of a large-scale public uprising in Iran or deep internal divisions within the ruling structure that could lead to the collapse of the current system.
Experts say Iran’s religious and military leadership continues to maintain firm control over the country’s political system.
