Following the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan, the growing collaboration among local, regional, and international militant groups based in the country has sparked serious threats to Afghanistan, the region, and global peace. These developments have rendered the peace agreement signed in Doha ineffective. Both the Afghan interim government and the international community have been periodically warned of these dangers. The alleged presence of Al-Qaeda, the banned Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Baloch separatist groups, and the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) operating from China’s Xinjiang province, raises several serious concerns.
Of particular worry is the potential access these groups may gain to modern weaponry and technology. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the banned TTP, and in Balochistan, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), have reportedly targeted Chinese nationals. While the BLA has publicly stated its attacks are in response to Chinese investment in Balochistan, no such statements have come from any group operating in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa explaining their reasons for targeting Chinese nationals.
Taliban sources confirm ideological differences between TIP and BLA. The TIP is a jihadist organization that seeks the establishment of a broader Islamic system, whereas the BLA is an ethno-nationalist movement focused on securing independence for Balochistan. However, there is operational cooperation between TTP and BLA, particularly in Balochistan, stemming from a shared adversary — the state of Pakistan. This mutual enemy has created a loose alliance between the ideologically diverse groups. TIP and BLA both view China as a common foe, although neither has openly acknowledged direct cooperation.
According to Taliban sources, while groups like the BLA possess small drones primarily used for reconnaissance and video footage, none currently operate weaponized large drones. BLA’s Commander-in-Chief, Bashir Zeb Baloch, has issued multiple statements asserting that any foreign power, including China, exploiting Balochistan’s resources is an enemy. He specifically accused China of colonizing the region and targeting its resources. His latest statement claims China is fencing off Gwadar to restrict access and divide the region into controlled zones. However, he insists BLA will never accept this and will continue to target Chinese interests.
Following BLA’s attacks on Chinese nationals in Karachi, China has pledged to work closely with Pakistani security forces to safeguard its investments, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and interest in Chabahar port. Reports indicate that the BLA has not yet used UAV technology for attacks. Most of their militants are poorly trained foot soldiers, although the group’s Majid Brigade includes suicide bombers. Journalists monitoring BLA confirm that while the group possesses some heavy weaponry, including anti-aircraft guns like “Dushka,” they have yet to deploy advanced technology in combat.
Since 2018, BLA has focused more on ideological outreach through literature to attract new recruits, including women, some of whom have carried out suicide attacks. The group primarily targets Chinese nationals due to China’s investments in Balochistan and Punjabi settlers, whom they view as occupiers.
According to a Counter Terrorism Department official, several militant groups operating in Pakistan now possess armed drones. Iran was among the first to acquire such technology and reportedly passed it on to Al-Qaeda, eventually reaching BLA through Taliban factions. From 2005 to 2013, Taliban forces looted numerous Afghanistan-bound containers, some containing drone parts that were allegedly sold to Iran, facilitating Iran’s ability to manufacture and distribute drones to proxy groups. Despite this, experts claim these drones can be tracked by radar and neutralized, which may explain BLA’s reluctance to deploy them.
Another source indicated BLA operatives have participated in meetings with other groups in Afghan provinces like Kandahar and Kunar. They possess quadcopter drones capable of carrying 4–5 kg bombs for limited operations and reconnaissance but lack the infrastructure (e.g., control rooms, airstrips) for large-scale drone warfare.
It is believed that TIP supports BLA in Balochistan due to their shared hostility toward China and may also be involved in attacks on Chinese nationals in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Sources claim TIP provides financial support to the Taliban and may have played a role in the recent Bisham attack on Chinese citizens, which also involved TTP.
Security analyst Haq Nawaz notes that in efforts to ease tensions with China, Afghan Defense Minister Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob brought Army Chief Qari Fasihuddin Fitrat to Qatar for dialogue. Reportedly, hundreds of TIP families have been relocated from Badakhshan to distance them from sensitive Chinese interests. Although TIP members are no longer as freely mobile as in the past, the Taliban still provides them protection and may use them strategically if relations with China sour. The Taliban also fears that any crackdown on TIP could push them toward aligning with ISIS.
This report was first published on June 26, 2024.
عالمی امن کو خطرہ لاحق، ترکستان اسلامک پارٹی کا بی ایل اے اور ٹی ٹی پی کی حمایت
