The recent border clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan have reignited fears of a larger, more destructive conflict in a region already suffering from decades of instability. As emotions run high and blame games intensify, it is important to step back from reactionary rhetoric and assess not only the roots of this crisis but also the long-term strategic implications. The situation, while dangerous, also presents a critical opportunity, one that Pakistan must approach with caution, clarity, and constructive engagement.
The Governance Deficit and the Security Dilemma
Peace and security in any region are tightly bound to the quality of governance. Where good governance falters, law and order are the first casualties. In both Pakistan’s tribal border regions and across Afghanistan, decades of conflict, neglect, and political manipulation have left a dangerous vacuum, one that non-state actors such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and others are all too eager to exploit.
The lack of a coherent and consistent approach from successive governments in Pakistan, coupled with the international community’s hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan, has created fertile ground for instability. These structural governance failures, particularly the inability to integrate local communities into the security and policy-making frameworks, continue to drive conflict. Peace requires more than military might, it demands political will, local participation, and sustained dialogue.
Is This a War or a Wake-Up Call?
The escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan is not just another border skirmish. It has the potential to spiral into a broader and far more destructive conflict if not addressed immediately. The recent retaliatory strikes, in which Pakistan reportedly targeted over 200 Afghan combatants after suffering initial losses, mark a worrying escalation in hostilities.
It is crucial to recognise that both countries are making competing and contradictory claims about the origins and extent of the violence. However, the impact is real: cross-border movement is restricted, economic activity is disrupted, and civilians on both sides are suffering.
The use of force, while sometimes necessary to defend national integrity, cannot be the sole strategy. Diplomacy must return to the centre of the equation, even when it seems out of reach.
Don’t Leave a Vacuum for Others to Fill
Disengaging from the Taliban may offer short-term emotional satisfaction, but in the long run, it is a strategic blunder. If Pakistan chooses to isolate the Taliban-led government, it creates a power vacuum in Afghanistan, one that will inevitably be filled by forces less favourable to Islamabad’s interests, including India.
We have already seen increased Indian engagement in Afghanistan, as highlighted by the visit of Taliban acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to New Delhi. His remarks at the Russian Ministerial Conference, openly criticising Pakistan, should serve as a wake-up call. Islamabad’s past strategy of offering unconditional support to the Taliban has not translated into political loyalty or policy alignment. Nevertheless, completely abandoning diplomatic channels is not the answer.
Afghanistan’s internal governance and foreign relations are evolving. The Taliban’s perception of themselves has changed post-August 2021. They now see themselves as an equal sovereign actor rather than a proxy movement dependent on Pakistan. It is time Pakistan recalibrates its approach and treats the Taliban as a government with its own interests, rather than an ideological ally bound by gratitude.
India’s Expanding Influence: A Strategic Red Flag
There is no denying India’s strategic patience and diplomatic manoeuvring in Afghanistan. From infrastructure projects and scholarships to diplomatic engagements, India is expanding its footprint, and not without reason. Every opportunity that Pakistan forfeits is one that India capitalises on.
But this is not just about India. Other global and regional powers, including the United States, are watching closely, ready to exploit the shifting dynamics for their own gains. The Taliban have maintained a pragmatic stance toward the U.S., and there are reports of America seeking renewed access to Bagram Airbase. If that happens, it could mark a new chapter in the region’s great-power competition, with Pakistan’s interests sidelined.
We must ask ourselves, do we want to play a passive role in shaping Afghanistan’s future or a proactive one?
The Two-Front Battle: External and Internal
Pakistan’s concerns about cross-border terrorism, particularly from the TTP, are valid and urgent. The TTP’s claim of responsibility for several recent attacks only fuels public anger and mistrust of the Afghan Taliban’s assurances.
However, not all solutions lie across the border. There is an internal dimension to this insurgency that cannot be ignored. The TTP’s support networks, facilitators, and sympathisers inside Pakistan, particularly in border regions, must be dismantled with the same vigour as our military operations.
In 2024 alone, over a thousand counter-terror operations have been carried out. But without breaking the facilitation chain and addressing the root causes, political marginalisation, economic deprivation, and weak civilian administration, the insurgency will continue to regenerate.
Diplomacy is Not Weakness
Critics may argue that calling for talks at a time of heightened hostilities sends the wrong message or appears as weakness. This is a short-sighted view. Diplomacy is not about capitulation, it is about calculation. Even during the Cold War, adversaries engaged in back-channel negotiations while nuclear warheads stood ready.
History shows us that even during periods of open hostility, nations have maintained lines of communication, through charge d’affaires, consular officials, or indirect channels. Pakistan must do the same. There is no shame in talking, the real shame would be to walk blindly into a prolonged conflict that neither nation can afford.
A Final Warning
Pakistan must avoid being manipulated by larger powers seeking to turn this conflict into a wider geopolitical contest. As a Pashto saying goes, when a cat is made the judge in the division of meat, neither side walks away with anything, the cat eats it all. If Pakistan and Afghanistan fail to manage their relationship wisely, they may both end up losing everything while others benefit.
It is time for Pakistan to reassess its Afghanistan policy, not by retreating, but by re-engaging with strategic clarity. Dialogue, deterrence, and development must all go hand in hand. Anything less will only perpetuate the cycles of war we’ve spent decades trying to end.
