(Irfan Khan)
The third round of Pak-Afghan talks held in Istanbul has ended in deadlock, despite persistent mediation by Turkey and Qatar aimed at enforcing a ceasefire and reconciling both countries’ positions. While efforts were made to bridge differences, it was always clear that fundamental disagreements over security and strategic responsibilities could derail the process. The talks now expose the underlying realities of cross-border militancy, proxy conflicts, and geopolitical maneuvering that continue to complicate regional stability.
Pakistan’s stance remains clear and unwavering: terrorist organizations present on Afghan soil, including Al-Qaeda, TTP, ISKP, and others, which threaten Pakistan’s security, must either be acted against by Afghanistan or Pakistan will act to neutralize them. If these groups are provided shelter by the Islamic Emirate, funded externally, armed, and trained, Pakistan reserves the right to defend itself. Past actions, such as the cross-border airstrikes in May, demonstrated Pakistan’s resolve and capacity for precise military response, which was acknowledged internationally, including by former US President Donald Trump.
The deadlock is compounded by the Islamic Emirate’s limited capacity and fear of retaliation. Acting against groups such as the Canadian TTP or BLA risks uniting them against the Afghan government, which currently lacks the trained personnel and military power to manage such threats effectively. Furthermore, India’s financial and strategic support for these organizations complicates the situation, turning Afghanistan into a theater for proxy operations targeting Pakistan. Pakistan’s security cannot remain passive in the face of such threats, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, where these organizations have historically attempted to operate.
Beyond Pakistan and Afghanistan, the regional and global dynamics are significant. China, Russia, Iran, and the United States support Pakistan’s position, while India continues to back forces against Pakistan, funding recruitment of fighters from Bangladesh, Azerbaijan, and even Afghan and Pakistani citizens. The Islamic Emirate’s failure to comply with Chinese requests regarding ETIM commanders demonstrates the wider implications for regional security, as China’s multi-billion-dollar investments in Afghanistan are directly threatened by militant activity.
Domestically, the impact of these stalled negotiations is visible in public safety and border security. Historical military operations Rahe Raast, Rahe Nijat, and Zarb-e-Azb show that militants often exploit ceasefires to cross into Pakistan and settle in border regions, undermining security and stability. Removing security forces from sensitive areas would inevitably force citizens to take matters into their own hands, creating further instability. Pakistan’s defense infrastructure and strategic positioning remain a deterrent, and the lessons of past operations demonstrate that decisive military action, in coordination with political support, restores order and enables displaced populations to return home.
Political dynamics also play a critical role. During past operations, provincial cooperation, such as the ANP’s support in 2009, proved essential for operational success. Conversely, lack of political backing or delayed responses undermines military efforts, as seen during recent ceasefires and negotiations with insurgents under previous administrations. These experiences highlight that peace and security require alignment between military strategy and governance.
The ongoing stalemate in Istanbul reinforces a central reality: diplomacy alone cannot resolve the security challenges posed by externally supported terrorist networks and ungoverned spaces. Pakistan’s approach must balance sustained diplomatic engagement with credible deterrence and readiness to act. Without such a strategy, the region risks further waves of violence, increased casualties on both sides of the border, and growing instability.
The stakes are high. The choices made now will determine whether the region can achieve lasting peace or continue to endure cycles of insurgency, proxy conflicts, and cross-border attacks. Pakistan’s position is clear: peace is necessary, but defense and strategic readiness are indispensable. The international community must recognize these dynamics, and Afghanistan must take responsibility for threats emanating from its territory. Only through coordinated action, regional cooperation, and uncompromising defense of national security can long-term stability be achieved
