A prominent Russian expert has warned that Afghanistan is on the verge of a new civil war, predicting the eventual collapse of the Taliban regime despite ongoing American support. Andrey Serenko, head of the Russian Centre for Contemporary Afghanistan Studies, said the Taliban’s survival is temporary and unsustainable, and that Moscow must prepare for the looming instability.
In a recent interview, Serenko claimed that the Taliban’s three-and-a-half-year rule is insignificant in historical terms and will not endure even with financial assistance from the United States and growing international interest in Taliban leaders like Sirajuddin Haqqani. He noted that previous Afghan regimes also fell after periods of apparent strength, citing the communist government that lasted over a decade and the republican government that collapsed in just three days.
Serenko accused the United States of being the Taliban’s primary backer, arguing that Washington continues to support the group to avoid destabilising the region and to preserve the Doha Agreement. He described the idea of Russia finding a strategic partner in the Taliban as “absurd,” stressing that no other country cooperates with the Taliban as extensively as the US does. He said the US effectively handed over power to the group and continues to enable its rule.
Internally, Serenko said the Taliban is facing deepening fractures and worsening rivalries. He added that while the group initially tried to present a unified front, infighting has escalated since their takeover. Armed resistance is also on the rise, with groups such as the National Resistance Front and the Afghanistan Freedom Front continuing attacks—especially in areas where Taliban officials now fear to appear after dark.
Although Serenko said a civil war appears inevitable, he acknowledged that Russia is not currently prepared to intervene due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the weight of international sanctions. Nonetheless, he urged the Kremlin to adopt a broader foreign policy approach and begin engaging with various Afghan factions to secure long-term Russian interests.
Serenko also raised concerns about Russia’s recent move to consider removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organisations. He expressed scepticism about the benefits of such a decision, warning that it would not make the Taliban allies of Moscow and could instead damage Russia’s relations with anti-Taliban forces still seeking its support. Russian state media reported that the Prosecutor General’s Office has asked the Supreme Court to temporarily delist the group, with the hearing scheduled for April 17.
Despite the Taliban’s hold on power and US backing, Serenko insisted the regime is fragile and its fall is only a matter of time. He warned that foreign actors would eventually withdraw from Afghanistan, leaving Russia to face the consequences of a chaotic and violent collapse if it fails to act now.
