First, look at the pattern and see which districts in KP are most affected by surge in Terror. The data clearly shows that Bannu, North Waziristan, Dera Ismail Khan and the adjoining South Waziristan district remain the most vulnerable because a sizable number of terrorist groups are still present across the border.
This data reflects the picture from the last three months, but there is reason to expect a reduction in attacks in the coming weeks, mainly due to Pakistan’s military operations across the border and the continued strengthening of border management, including fencing and enhanced deployment up to the Chaman border.
However, despite these measures, attacks continue in Bajaur and Mohmand. One major reason is the socio-economic vulnerability of these areas. In Khyber district and along the Afghan border near Tirah Valley, repeated attacks have been launched. Just yesterday, an operation in Khyber district resulted in the elimination of terrorists, and today the Afghan Taliban attempted another infiltration.
This exposes the Taliban’s dual policy. On one side, they seek dialogue with friendly countries and call for peace talks and a permanent ceasefire. On the other, attacks continue near Angoor Adda and elsewhere, and terrorist groups are reorganized after each assault.
All of this directly contradicts the Taliban’s repeated narrative that they will not allow Afghan soil to be used against Pakistan. Yet the pattern in North and South Waziristan continues because groups like Hafiz Gul Bahadur’s network remain active, terrorists from Khyber district remain active, and Islamic State Khorasan Province remains operational.
The same pattern is visible in Balochistan. Just days ago, copper miners were targeted and killed. One must examine the pattern, the origin of these attackers, and who is backing them. Afghan territory is not only being used against Pakistan, but against multiple countries in the region.
At the same time, Pakistan’s counter-terror response has become more effective. The operations in which terrorists were eliminated demonstrate the improved effectiveness of the Counter Terrorism Department and other security institutions. Hundreds of terrorists have been neutralized, more than 1,200 cases have been initiated, and Pakistan’s response time has improved significantly.
In the last month, there has been a visible reduction in the number of terrorist incidents. In most targeted operations, terrorists are being neutralized, and command-and-control centres inside Afghanistan have been dismantled. The checkpoints near Angoor Adda, from where attacks were launched, have also been neutralized.
Pakistan’s policy now appears clearer. If borders are closed and business with Afghanistan is suspended, then the issue of terrorism must be addressed first.
There was a time when many argued Pakistan could not access Central Asia without Afghanistan and would lose billions in trade. But Pakistan has now found alternatives. Through Taftan and Iran, routes have opened toward Kyrgyzstan. Through China, access has expanded toward Badakhshan and onward to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan through new corridors, reducing reliance on Afghanistan.
The main issue now remains the southern districts. In Lakki Marwat and Kohat, law and order challenges persist. While law enforcement agencies are playing their role against terrorists and reducing their operational capabilities, there appears to be a lack of seriousness from the provincial government.
The provincial government appears opposed to these operations and seems to believe terrorism can be addressed through some other means. But what is the logic behind that? Police officers are being martyred. Other law enforcement personnel are being martyred. The army is being attacked. Law and order is the responsibility of both the provincial and federal governments.
The provincial government says it is equipping the Special Branch, providing modern anti-terror training and establishing special squads. But these measures must now be judged seriously.
Sitting in Peshawar and holding rallies in peaceful districts like Nowshera and Swabi changes nothing. The real issue is that the policing system has failed to effectively reach peripheral districts. The loss is borne by the people.
This data creates fear among the public. People are leaving the province and shifting their businesses elsewhere. Public confidence must be restored so that people can return and invest in their own province.
Pakistan has also clearly outlined conditions for negotiations. During the Urumqi talks, three points were made clear: dismantle terrorist operational bases, take action against these groups, or publicly disown and declare them terrorists. If action has been taken, then evidence should be presented.
But Afghanistan itself is facing deep internal problems. There are conflicts between Taliban and non-Taliban groups, non-Taliban Pashtuns, and figures like Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Abdul Rashid Dostum, Abdullah Abdullah and Ahmad Massoud. The Afghan Resistance Front continues to challenge the regime, while communities not aligned with the Taliban are being targeted.
Afghanistan’s biggest problem is the absence of active policing and governance. Carrying guns and threatening people may project power, but it does not solve law and order issues, improve governance or strengthen education.
The Afghan Taliban regime itself is creating enemies. Even within the Pashtun belt, key figures are sidelined. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar is absent. Sirajuddin Haqqani is rarely visible. Mullah Yaqoob, son of Mullah Omar, is not prominently seen. Instead, less influential figures are calling the shots with their own agendas.
They face both internal and external differences, while hostile agencies outside Afghanistan continue to exploit the situation. In such conditions, law and order cannot improve.
On the issue of ethnic and sectarian divisions, minority groups are not being given proper protection. In Herat, local commanders like Ismail Khan still hold influence. Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras remain vulnerable.
The Hazara and other non-Sunni communities are being targeted by Islamic State Khorasan and Daesh elements. Hardline factions within the Afghan Taliban linked to Mullah Hibatullah’s group also hold rigid views against them.
This is not merely sectarian violence, it reflects deep intolerance toward minorities. The destruction of the Bamiyan Buddhas by the first Taliban regime and the continued targeting of Hazaras show a longstanding pattern.
In Pakistan too, sectarian attacks in Quetta and elsewhere have been claimed by Islamic State Khorasan and Daesh. These groups seek to spread sectarian violence across the region.
Even within the Taliban regime, divisions are visible. Kandahar Taliban, Kabul Taliban, Haqqani network, Mullah Yaqoob’s faction, and smaller commanders all operate under competing loyalties. They accept only those who pledge allegiance to specific factions.
There is no active policing, no governance system, and no central authority in remote villages. Fighters patrol streets and conduct searches, but there is no institutional security structure.
The institution established under Amr bil Maroof wa Nahi anil Munkar cannot replace governance. Religion cannot be imposed by force. Even Sirajuddin Haqqani has repeatedly said that people cannot be ruled through coercion alone.
This points toward total anarchy in Afghanistan. There is no effective central government, no functioning system and no real governance.
If the situation continues, Afghanistan may move toward civil war and ultimately division. Already, some voices in Afghanistan have raised old flags and demanded protection from outside forces.
If Uzbeks, Tajiks, Hazaras and communities in Herat begin demanding separate regions or states because they feel unsafe under Taliban rule, Afghanistan’s territorial unity could come under serious threat.
The Pashtun belt remains underdeveloped, lacking factories and education. Women have been removed from education in many areas, while northern regions under different influence continue educating girls.
One thing is clear: if Afghanistan truly wants to move toward progress, it must establish an inclusive government.
Secondly, hardline policies must end, and minorities must be protected. Islamic history itself provides examples of minority protection, from Hazrat Umar to the Ottoman era. The Holy Prophet (PBUH) protected minorities and engaged with them in trade and society.
It is not permissible to expel people from the fold of Islam due to sectarian differences, declare them worthy of death, or threaten their existence.
I think this is the responsibility of the international community, not just Pakistan and the neighboring countries.
