(Shamim Shahid)
The escalating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan are no longer a bilateral issue confined to two neighboring states. The situation has evolved into a complex regional security challenge with wide-ranging implications for trade, diplomacy, and stability across South and Central Asia. Recent developments indicate that the crisis now involves multiple international stakeholders, including Russia and Iran, highlighting the gravity of the situation and the urgent need for coordinated action.
Two days ago, Russia’s spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, publicly offered that Russia is ready to play a mediating role in the escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Over the years, Russia has maintained cordial relations with both countries, and its effective recognition of the Taliban government in Kabul demonstrates its influence in the region. This proposal is significant because it marks a shift in the regional dynamics: the conflict is no longer merely bilateral but has become a wider regional concern with implications for security, trade, and international diplomacy. Iran has also indicated its willingness to facilitate dialogue, while Turkey has maintained a more cautious stance. These developments suggest that any resolution to the crisis will require multilateral engagement.
While diplomatic efforts are underway, the security situation in Pakistan, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, is deteriorating rapidly. Reports from districts such as Lakhi Marwat and Bannu highlight an alarming surge in Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) activity. Kidnappings, direct threats, and attacks on both civilians and security personnel are occurring on a near-daily basis. Recently, even a soldier from the Frontier Corps was abducted and later released following intervention by his father, indicating the brazen nature of these attacks. The rise in TTP violence underscores that Pakistan’s internal security landscape remains highly vulnerable, particularly in areas bordering Afghanistan.
Experts distinguish between two TTP factions—one operating from Afghanistan and the other based in Pakistan. While the Afghan Taliban have reportedly exercised political and diplomatic pressure to suppress TTP activities within their territory, the TTP in Pakistan is becoming increasingly aggressive. Incidents over the past two months suggest that local TTP cells are distancing themselves from centralized control, claiming responsibility for attacks and kidnappings independently. In addition, curfews have been imposed in northern Afghanistan for consecutive days, highlighting the regional spread of instability.
In response, the Pakistani government is considering significant reforms to its counterterrorism framework, including changes to the Civil Power Act. Initially implemented in 2012–2013, the law allowed civil institutions to coordinate counterterrorism operations. Over time, however, powers shifted to the military, limiting the role of civilian agencies such as the Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) and local police forces. Current proposals aim to transfer these powers back to civil authorities, effectively enabling the CTD and police to act as primary enforcement agencies. While this approach could strengthen civil governance, experts warn that the lack of coordination and trust between political leadership, civil authorities, and the military could undermine its effectiveness.
The success of any counterterrorism operation, it is argued, depends on political ownership and public trust. In Pakistan, the gap between political leadership and security institutions has historically hindered coordinated responses to terrorism. Past initiatives, such as the Civil Action Plan of 2012–2013, promised to curb terrorism but fell short due to fragmented implementation and conflicting interests. Today, the absence of a shared strategy between Islamabad and provincial authorities, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, exacerbates the problem. Without unified political backing and public confidence, civil institutions and security agencies are unlikely to achieve sustainable results.
The ramifications of this instability extend beyond security. Trade and economic activity are being disrupted, with significant consequences for both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Border closures, visa restrictions, and disruptions to transit trade have diverted Afghan trade routes through Iran and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan entirely. Historically, Pakistan has served as the most efficient corridor for Afghan trade, yet ongoing instability has forced traders to seek alternative routes, increasing costs and delays. This shift affects Pakistan’s economy disproportionately, particularly industrial centers in Punjab and Karachi, and compounds the economic challenges of provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
The broader implications are equally worrying. Continued unrest in Afghanistan threatens to spill over into Pakistan, reigniting extremist networks that have long operated in both countries. Historical experience shows that militancy in the region has roots in Pakistan itself, with jihadist movements historically incubated and trained within its borders before expanding into Afghanistan. Analysts caution that prolonged instability will likely strengthen religious extremist groups, creating a feedback loop of violence and insecurity that undermines both nations’ long-term stability.
Diplomatic engagement is therefore critical. Russia’s offer to mediate, coupled with Iran’s involvement, presents an opportunity for dialogue that could mitigate tensions and facilitate cooperation on security and trade. Multilateral engagement, including from regional players such as China and India, could provide the framework needed to address both the immediate threats posed by TTP activity and the underlying political and economic drivers of instability. However, successful diplomacy will require political will, trust-building measures, and an acknowledgment by all parties that security and economic stability are mutually dependent.
Meanwhile, domestic governance challenges persist. The provincial government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, led by Chief Minister Khawar Pakhtunkhwa, has proposed reforms to transfer counterterrorism powers from the military to civil authorities. While conceptually sound, such reforms will only succeed if civil authorities, military forces, and political leaders coordinate effectively. Experts stress that security operations require clear communication, unified command structures, and public legitimacy. Without these elements, efforts to curb militancy risk failure, regardless of legal or institutional reforms.
Public trust emerges as a critical factor in the success of counterterrorism efforts. Whether through local leadership, parliamentarians, or political representation, communities must perceive that security institutions are acting in their interest rather than as instruments of political or military agendas. Only then can operations by the CTD, civil police, or military gain effectiveness and legitimacy. Failure to secure public trust, experts argue, will perpetuate a cycle of violence, mistrust, and instability that undermines both governance and security objectives.
Trade considerations further highlight the urgency of resolving the crisis. With border routes closed and Afghanistan increasingly reliant on transit through Iran and Central Asia, Pakistan faces not only immediate economic losses but also long-term strategic disadvantages. Reduced trade diminishes industrial growth, limits foreign exchange, and exacerbates poverty in already vulnerable provinces. In turn, this economic hardship can reinforce social grievances and create fertile ground for extremist recruitment, perpetuating the cycle of insecurity.
Looking ahead, the future of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations and regional stability depends on two critical factors: coordinated counterterrorism measures and robust diplomatic engagement. Both require political courage, clear communication, and a commitment to multilateral cooperation. Russia and Iran’s involvement provides a potential pathway to dialogue, while reforms in civil counterterrorism frameworks could strengthen governance and operational capacity. Yet, these measures must be accompanied by trust-building efforts, public engagement, and transparent political oversight.
If left unaddressed, the consequences could be severe. Unrest in Afghanistan is likely to intensify extremist activity in Pakistan, while strained diplomatic relations will continue to disrupt trade and regional cooperation. Religious extremism may expand, and security forces will face an increasingly complex operational environment. Moreover, Pakistan’s economy could bear the brunt of disrupted trade, reduced market access, and declining industrial output, creating long-term socio-economic challenges.
In conclusion, the Pakistan-Afghanistan crisis has transformed from a bilateral dispute into a full-fledged regional security challenge. It requires urgent, coordinated action on multiple fronts: strengthening civil and military coordination, securing public trust, facilitating international mediation, and addressing economic vulnerabilities. Failure to act decisively risks perpetuating instability, extremism, and economic losses, not only for Pakistan and Afghanistan but for the broader region. The time for piecemeal measures has passed; what is required now is a comprehensive strategy grounded in cooperation, trust, and regional engagement to avert further escalation and secure lasting peace.
