Recent revelations from Pakistan’s top security leadership confirm a grim reality: the threat of terrorism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is not only growing, but is increasingly cross-border in nature. The Inspector General of KP Police recently admitted that over 8,000 terrorists are active within the province, with 800 to 1,000 militants concentrated in Bajaur alone. This is not an isolated issue, it is part of a broader, complex crisis that stretches from the tribal belt to Kabul’s corridors of power.
Evidence points to a clear source, Afghan soil continues to serve as a safe haven for the banned Tehreek-e
-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and other anti-Pakistan groups. The attack on the FC camp in Bannu, where Major Adnan was martyred, was perpetrated by Afghan nationals, as confirmed through forensic and intelligence trails. This follows a pattern seen in recent months, from Zhob in Balochistan to Mohmand and Waziristan, where Afghan-based terrorists infiltrate the border and attack Pakistani forces.
A Porous Border and Complicit Networks
The porous Afghanistan–Pakistan border remains a major vulnerability. Human traffickers, narcotics smugglers, timber mafias, and armed militant groups exploit this frontier with impunity. Intelligence assessments and law enforcement data show a deep nexus between Afghan-based militant factions and regional criminal enterprises. These networks not only facilitate infiltration, but also serve as logistical and financial lifelines for terrorists.
This situation is worsened by Afghanistan’s reluctance to act decisively. Despite repeated evidence and official communications, Kabul continues to harbor or turn a blind eye to groups that directly threaten Pakistan’s security. Senior Pakistani officials have handed over detailed maps and intelligence reports to Afghan authorities pinpointing TTP, IS-KP, and BLA training centers inside Afghanistan. Yet, substantive action from the Taliban regime remains absent.
A Shift in Pakistan’s Posture, From Passive to Proactive
Until recently, Pakistan’s counterterrorism strategy in the tribal areas was largely defensive. However, the recent uptick in attacks and the martyrdom of key officers have triggered a major policy shift. Active operations are now underway in key districts, Bajaur, North and South Waziristan, and Mohmand, targeting both local and cross-border militant threats. In South Waziristan’s Serwekai, key commanders including Hidayatullah and Commander Noor were eliminated in a strike that also targeted an IED and drone factory.
This is part of an emerging “zero tolerance” doctrine, championed by Pakistan’s current military leadership, which emphasizes preemptive strikes and cross-border surveillance to dismantle terrorist infrastructure before it can be used against Pakistan.
Tensions Within the Taliban and the TTP
Even as Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of encroachment, there is mounting evidence of fragmentation within the Taliban itself, and between the Taliban and the TTP. Recent internal Taliban communications and remarks by Afghanistan’s Deputy Interior Minister, Mr. Nuri, suggest that elements within the Taliban government are concerned about their own fighters aligning with TTP, IS-KP, or BLA. Mr. Nuri confirmed that any Taliban fighter joining such groups would be acting against the authority of the Emir, a sign of internal discord.
Meanwhile, the TTP itself is splintering. Accusations of espionage and betrayal have resurfaced between Hafiz Gul Bahadur’s faction and the TTP leadership. These tensions are amplified by Pakistan’s increasing reliance on modern warfare technologies, air surveillance, drones, quadcopters, which have made hiding from the state far more difficult than in previous decades.
The Danger of Strategic Miscalculation by Kabul
What’s more concerning is the Taliban’s apparent use of these terrorist groups as bargaining chips. Analysts believe Kabul is leveraging TTP and IS-KP to extract concessions from Pakistan, be it diplomatic recognition, trade incentives, or softening of border control. Meanwhile, the Afghan regime has been flirting with India, once again using the “India card” to blackmail Pakistan.
India’s Ajit Doval has proposed reviving the Chabahar Port for Afghanistan’s use, should tensions with Pakistan escalate further. This move, though largely symbolic given Iran’s strategic alignment with Pakistan, signals Kabul’s willingness to pivot, even toward adversaries, if it serves their short-term interests.
This is a strategic blunder of the highest order.
The Taliban’s Government in Decline?
Signs also point to an internal decline within the Taliban regime itself. Politically, resistance is regrouping. From Ahmad Massoud’s National Resistance Front to the emerging Islamic League, which includes veterans like Rasool Sayyaf, Ismail Khan, and the late Burhanuddin Rabbani’s supporters, a new political front is forming with the clear goal of challenging Taliban rule.
International signals are equally telling. Zalmay Khalilzad, former U.S. special envoy, has publicly advocated for an inclusive government in Afghanistan, warning that continued exclusion and authoritarianism could trigger another civil war. Washington’s patience appears to be waning, and a potential in-house change in Kabul is now openly discussed in diplomatic circles.
A Regional Crisis in the Making
If the current trends continue, TTP and IS-KP emboldened, Afghan leadership in denial, internal resistance gaining momentum, Afghanistan may once again become a theatre for a regional proxy war.
The involvement of global intelligence networks, such as Mossad, and radical transnational groups like Al-Qaeda, whose 70 to 80 key commanders are now reportedly operating training camps in Afghanistan, elevates the risk significantly. These camps are allegedly training fighters from TTP, IS-KP, BLA, and ETIM, creating a volatile cocktail of ideologically driven, state-enabled terrorism with international reach.
The Way Forward, Regional Diplomacy or Another Great Game?
To avert a catastrophe, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Russia, and the Central Asian Republics must act collectively. If Afghanistan descends into civil war again, the consequences will be catastrophic, not just for Afghans but for the entire region. A regional security mechanism, perhaps through SCO or ECO, must be established to jointly manage intelligence, border security, and economic development.
Waiting for another American-backed plan from think tanks in Washington, or worse, a revival of the Great Game, is no longer an option.
This is not just about terror attacks in Bajaur or the martyrdom of Pakistani soldiers. It is about a looming collapse of regional order, one that could trigger mineral wars, proxy conflicts, mass displacement, and a new Cold War dynamic in South and Central Asia. If the Afghan Taliban continue to act out of short-term self-interest and ideological rigidity, they risk dragging their nation, and perhaps the wider region, into another furnace of war.
The time to act is now.
